Economy2 MIN READ
La DOTCE Vita: Wake me up when September ends
September has seen the peso on the back foot, though some hope remains for a modest recovery before the year ends.
September 22, 2026 by Nicholas Antonio Mapa
Share this article:
PHP takes a tumble to record lows
The Philippine peso touched a record low last Sep 14, closing at 62.87 as the local unit tracked surging global oil and diesel prices amidst floundering domestic confidence. Oil prices touched a high of 109.97/barrel for Brent crude as hostilities in the Middle East worsened, while souring investor sentiment pushed out foreign investors, with the local PSEi now down to 5,834.2. The peso is down 0.45% for the month and 2.8% since August.
Seasons of?
The 3rd quarter is traditionally when we find the most pressure on spot, with heavy importation adding more flavor to the depreciation party, year in and year out. This can partly explain why the peso has been so weak, with seasonality adding some insult to the already “injured” peso.
Sources: Bloomberg, Metrobank Research
Wake me up when September ends
Originally released in 2004, Green Day's single always seems to evoke our sentiment towards USD/PHP this time of every year. And although the recent gyrations in global risk sentiment and fundamental current account deficit both play a definite hand in the movement of the spot market, we must also remember that the PHP is also influenced by seasonality.
And if we believe in seasonality, we also know that the 4Q is the traditional "strongest" quarter for the Peso, with inflows from OFs in the form of remittances and the BPO call center bonuses finding their way to our shores to help soothe a battered FX. So yes, for all those of you out there who have been battered, bruised, and bloodied by the yin and yang of the market, we can hold on for one more turn in the market this year, and it looks like it could be a peso recovery, no matter how shallow that bounce back may be.
Let the countdown begin, eight days to go, and you can wake me up when September ends.
(Disclaimer: This is general investment information only and does not constitute an offer or guarantee, with all investment decisions made at your own risk. The bank takes no responsibility for any potential losses.)
(Distribution Restriction: This material is for the exclusive use of eligible clients only. Any unauthorized reproduction, redistribution, or electronic transmission of this content, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited. The opinions and views expressed in this material are those of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Metrobank.)
NICHOLAS MAPA is Metrobank’s Chief Economist, Market Strategist, and Head of the Markets Advisory Division in the Financial Markets Sector. He graduated from the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) with an undergraduate degree in Humanities and a Master of Science (MSc) in Industrial Economics. He also completed an MA in Economics from Vanderbilt University and an MBA from the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. He travels regularly with his family, enamored by culture and history. An avid learner, he also reads extensively.